FPI, Vegas disagree lines including Washington, Oklahoma State in Week 12
Washington and Oklahoma State are clinging to life in the College Football Playoff race, and FPI disagrees with the Vegas lines involving both the Huskies and Cowboys this week.
Campus Conversation: Talk Nerdy To Me
Brad Edwards and Seth Walder share their thoughts on the latest CFP rankings and which teams can move up or down going forward.
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 11
The first 2017 meeting between the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles and division-rival Dallas Cowboys tops the watchability list for Week 11, per ESPN Football Power Index's matchup quality metrics.
Poor shooting could be talented Duke's glaring weakness
Duke's mega-talented seven-man recruiting class has the Blue Devils ranked No. 1 and thinking national title. But the group will have to prove it can shoot the ball consistently when the opponents get stronger.
Best and worst QBs of Week 10: Keenum, Beathard make their cases
Quarterbacks at risk of being benched played their best games of the season for two of the top performances.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 11
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 11.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 10
A late game-winning touchdown. A critical turnover in OT. A deep TD pass to end a long losing streak. These are the plays that swung Week 10 in the NFL.
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 11
Minnesota's Demry Croft ran for three TDs and 183 yards to roll past Nebraska and become the top Power 5 quarterback of Week 11.
Talk Nerdy: Could Two Teams From The Same Conference Make The CFP?
Brad Edwards and Matt Morris discuss how realistic of a possibility it's become to see two teams from the same conference make the Playoff after Week 11's results.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From defensive gems to last-minute thrillers, these were some of the biggest win-probability swings from an upset-filled Saturday in college football.
Overall NBA standings: Front-office look, from best to worst
What happens when you combine NBA standings with analytics, the salary cap and the draft? The standings start to look a whole lot different.
Which top rookies will deliver bigger things in 2018?
As good as Cody Bellinger was this year, he's just getting started. While some elite first-year players will use 2017 as a springboard for more, some will have a hard time topping last season.
Just how good is Shohei Ohtani, anyway?
One of the most fascinating players in the world is set to make the jump from Japan to the major leagues for the 2018 season. We break down just how much he's worth as a pitcher, a hitter -- and both -- as he makes a difficult transition across the world.
FPI, Vegas disagree on lines -- including Michigan, Ohio State -- in Week 11
FPI has multiple quarrels with the Las Vegas lines in this Saturday's Big Ten East matchups. Will Michigan State-Ohio State and Michigan-Maryland go according to script?
Campus Conversation: Week 11 Talk Nerdy To Me
Brad Edwards and Seth Walder discuss if the FPI needs to be "fixed" when it comes to Ohio State and Penn State. Plus, FPI vs. Vegas lines for Week 11.
Whose fans are happier, angrier than they were in August?
Which college football fan bases have seen their emotions turn negative after a hopeful summer? Whose fans are elated at the results of the past two months? We measured it all in our November update of the Fan Happiness Index.
Has Embiid been the best two-way player this season?
Embiid's two-way dominance has emerged to the point that it begs the question: Has he actually been a nontraditional version of the best two-way player in the game?
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 10
Baker Mayfield, who passed for nearly 600 yards in Oklahoma's wild Bedlam win over Oklahoma State, is the top Power 5 quarterback for Week 10.
What's the scenario? How Georgia, Notre Dame, Auburn can reach the CFP
What if the SEC championship is a battle of unbeatens? What if a one-loss Clemson beats an undefeated Miami in the ACC title game? What if Notre Dame runs the table? Our strength-of-record metrics predict who would make the field in all these scenarios.
Bold BPI predictions: Duke won't be a No. 1-seed in 2017-18
Duke's undeniable talent has the Blue Devils atop the rankings entering the 2017-18 season. But BPI's projections say the Blue Devils' youth could equal a bumpy road to Selection Sunday.
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 10
One week removed from an entertaining, important win over the Chiefs, the Cowboys are again set for a compelling test: Football Power Index's matchup quality metric says Dallas' trip to Atlanta to meet the Falcons is Week 10's best game.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 10
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 10.
After 10 games, Cavaliers' chances of a 50-win season appear sunk
Cleveland's odds of starting the season 4-6 were only 8 percent, according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index, which now strongly favors Boston to win the East.
Best and worst QBs of Week 9: Goff, Dak win the weekend
The pair of second-year quarterbacks had the week's most impressive performances en route to statement wins.
Late TD put Seahawks ahead ... and left the door open for loss
The Seahawks' late touchdown put them ahead of the Redskins and positioned them for a Week 9 win. Bleeding the clock and playing for a short field goal -- even with a struggling Blair Walsh -- would have been the best option to prevent a Redskins rally.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From overtime thrillers to last-second plays to Bedlam madness, these are some of the biggest win-probability swings from another wild Saturday in college football.
The Jaguars (yes, the Jaguars) are playing some historically good defense
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been among the NFL's most pleasant surprises, and a unit that is putting together some of the best pass-defense metrics in recent memory is a major reason why.
Campus Conversation: Talk Nerdy To Me Week 10
Brad Edwards and Seth Walder look ahead to Week 10 on the college gridiron through an analytics lens.
How history can predict the CFP final four.
Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Clemson made the CFP selection committee's first four. But based on trends from the last three years of playoff participants, we may be able to fast forward to the final grouping. And only two of those teams make the cut.
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 9
The Chiefs' first visit to Dallas since 2005 (and first trip all time to Jerryworld) projects as the NFL's most watchable game of Week 9, according to Football Power Index's matchup quality metrics.
Which NFL teams will hit their Vegas win totals?
The Colts' preseason over/under was eight wins, a high bar to clear for a team that turned out to be awful. The Eagles' total was 8.5 wins, a number they look certain to hit with weeks to spare. Here's how every NFL team is trending toward its number.
Preseason BPI not especially high on Duke, Kentucky
Teams featuring one-and-dones will continue to get a wealth of the attention in college basketball. But following a year in which experienced UNC and Gonzaga played for the title, BPI's projections are higher on the game's more veteran units.
The game-changing plays from a wild and crazy Saturday
From upset specials to streak-busters to last-minute drama, these are some of the biggest win-probability swings from another wild and crazy Saturday in college football.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 9
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 9.
Best and worst QBs of Week 8: Watson, Wilson duel for No. 1
The Texans' rookie traded blows with the seasoned QB in Seattle for the top performance this week.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 8
A back-and-forth final quarter in Seattle. A pick-six. And a muffed punt. These are the plays that swung Week 8 in the NFL.
Talk Nerdy: Ohio State's Enviable Position, Playoff Rankings
Brad Edwards and Matt Morris discuss the enviable position Ohio State finds itself in following the win over Penn State. Plus, they discuss the upcoming CFP rankings.
Vegas overrating Michigan State, Utah in Week 9, per FPI
Michigan State is favored at Northwestern on Saturday, as the Spartans attempt to keep pace with the Ohio State/Penn State winner in the Big Ten East. But FPI says MSU should be wary of the Wildcats -- and disagrees with multiple other Week 9 lines.
The unreasonable index: Does your coach belong on the hot seat?
Heightened fan expectations and huge coaching salaries are two elements that have yielded constant hot seat speculation in college football. Forty-seven years' worth of CFB data found that some of 2017's possible firings would be nearly without precedent.
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 8
One of the NFL's classic rivalries earns the spotlight this week, with Football Power Index's matchup quality metric tabbing Cowboys-Redskins as Week 8's top game.
Best and worst QBs of Week 7: Bortles is No. 1 ... for a day
The Jags quarterback had his day in the sun, while C.J. Beathard struggled against America's team.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 7
A last-gasp winner in Oakland. Two crucial mistakes in Buffalo and New Jersey. A rookie's history-making day in Chicago. These are the plays that swung Week 7 in the NFL.
After each exceeded expectations yesterday, the Rams and Cowboys improved their respective FPI ratings more than any other team this week (so far). On the other side of the coin, the Cardinals' rating dropped a massive 4.2 points, while the Colts and 49ers fell a good bit, too.
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 8
Anthony Brown's best game of the season led Boston College past Virginia and made him the best Power 5 quarterback for Week 8.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From game-winners to overtime drama, these are some of the biggest win-probability swings from another exciting Saturday in college football.
Down year? SEC projects to own half of College Football Playoff field
The 2017 version of the SEC has not been as strong from top to bottom as in other years, it's true. But ESPN's projected strength of record metric says the league has a strong chance to end up with two of the nation's four most worthy playoff teams.
FPI says Vegas not giving Penn State, Notre Dame enough credit in Week 8
Penn State is not quite a double-digit favorite over Michigan, and Vegas says Notre Dame is about a field goal better than USC. But FPI says you can expect those results to be decisive and has some other quarrels with the Week 8 lines.
Browns on pace for a putrid QB milestone
The 2017 Cleveland Browns have collected a Total QBR of 21.9, which would be the fourth worst of the Total QBR era (since 2006) if it holds up. If the Browns manage to get worse, here are the previous QB groups they're "chasing."
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 7
A Super Bowl rematch and key divisional battles in the AFC West and NFC East are part of ESPN's Football Power Index ranking of Week 7's highest-quality matchups.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 7
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 7.
Best and worst QBs of Week 6: Palmer, Brady out-sling young arms
In a season dominated by young quarterbacks, the top performances belonged to 37- and 40-year-old veterans.
New NBA projections: Updated W-L records, standings for all 30 teams
Who will make the playoffs, and who is headed to the lottery? Kevin Pelton projects the NBA standings and the 2017-18 record for every team.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 6
Pierre Garcon's questionable offensive pass interference penalty. Matt Ryan's crushing fourth-quarter pick. These are the plays that swung Week 6 in the NFL.
The game-changing plays from another wild college football Saturday
From last-second plays to game-winning TDs to big defensive stops, these are some of the biggest win-probability swings from a wild Saturday in college football.
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 6
The Packers and Vikings both prevailed in games that came down to the wire last week, and their Week 6 head-to-head meeting figures to offer more excitement. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks Pack-Vikes No. 1 in its matchup quality metric for this week.
Best Week 6 NFL Eliminator picks
Still in the hunt in your Eliminator contests after Week 5? Find out which of this week's huge favorites is worthy of your selection as we look ahead to more difficult slates in the future.
Seahawks in control of NFC West after win over Rams
By virtue of their win over the Rams, the Seahawks are prohibitive favorites to take the division despite both teams standing at 3-2.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 6
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 6.
Best and worst QBs of Week 5: Welcome to the Deshaun and Dak show
The top performances belonged to young stars Deshaun Watson and Dak Prescott, who had huge days in losing efforts.
Rodgers strikes again: The craziest win-probability swings of Week 5
Aaron Rodgers led another comeback against the Cowboys, while Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning had rough moments. These are the plays that swung Week 5 in the NFL.
No team improved its FPI rating yesterday more than the Jaguars, who dramatically outperformed expectation against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Chiefs remain at No. 1 after their win on Sunday night over the Texans.
The plays that changed everything in Week 6 of college football
From a game-winner in OT to the signature play in a monster upset to an instant-classic play in a heated rivalry, these are some of the biggest win-probability swings from a crazy Saturday in college football.
Ultimate MLB playoff rankings: Odds for every possible matchup, top units, biggest sluggers and more
From the powerhouses at the top to the wild cards hoping to make a run, we crunched the numbers to find out the Fall Classic formula. But this time of year, anything can happen.
Who's overrated, underrated in NFL Power Rankings?
ESPN's latest NFL Power Rankings have the New England Patriots ranked No. 7 in the league. Football Power Index (FPI) data takes issue with that ranking, and a number of others on the too-high or too-low meter.
The game-changing plays from a wild Saturday in college football
From big runs to last-minute heroics, these are some of the biggest win probability swings from a wild Saturday in college football.
Think Alex Smith has changed his approach? Not so fast ...
The Chiefs are 3-0 and Alex Smith has the NFL's best traditional passer rating. On the other hand, he's 16th in total QBR. Here's why there's such a big discrepancy.
Mathletes: Eagles' analytics team has an in-game line to Doug Pederson
When it comes to making key decisions during a game, the Eagles' head coach is listening to his analysts and their math.
Though Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin are all ranked ahead of Ohio State in the AP poll, the Buckeyes still have the best chance to win the Big Ten.
Three best, three worst QBs of Week 3: Pricey passers fall flat
Jared Goff had the game of his life, while Cam Newton had a day to forget.
Game winners galore: The craziest win-probability swings of Week 3
A walk-off 61-yard FG. A toe-tap TD. A goal-line stand as time expired. These are the plays that swung Week 3 in the NFL.
Barnwell: Seasons that changed over 23 minutes of Week 3 madness
Just how great were the 1 p.m. ET games on Sunday? The top five games produced the seventh-best average Excitement Index since 2005. Here's what you need to know about each matchup.
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 4
Auburn's Jarrett Stidham was a model of efficiency against Missouri, making him Week 4's best Power 5 quarterback.
The game-changing plays from Week 4 in college football
From last-second scores to special-teams heroics, these are some of the biggest win probability swings from Week 4 in college football.
Preseason BPI reveal shows just how dominant the Warriors will be
To the surprise of no one, the Golden State Warriors are the team the preseason NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) identifies as the one to beat. The Warriors' biggest projected NBA title challenger comes from the East (and does not include LeBron).
FPI ranks best games of NFL Week 3
The classic AFC West matchup between the Chiefs and Chargers will shift to the StubHub Center, where the (perhaps-less-than capacity?) crowd will be treated to what FPI projects as Week 3's highest-quality contest.
Best Week 3 NFL Eliminator picks
Still in the hunt in your Eliminator contests after Week 2? We have your top three options to lock in as your Week 3 pick, as well as a team you should absolutely avoid this time around.
Updated NFL OTD leaderboard for Week 3
Our opportunity-adjusted touchdowns rankings tell you not only who's scoring, but who's getting the opportunities to score. Here we reveal our updated OTD table heading into Week 3.
College football's best quarterbacks in Week 3
Plenty of big-name Power 5 quarterbacks had monster performances in Week 3, including Mason Rudolph, Jalen Hurts and Trace McSorley. But you might be surprised who leads this group: Wisconsin's Alex Hornibrook.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 2
A Gronk game-breaker. A dazzling scramble TD. A missed game-winning FG. These are the plays that swung Week 2 in the NFL.
The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive.
The plays that changed everything on Saturday
From a Hail Mary being answered in Florida to overtime drama in Southern California, these are some of the biggest win probability swings from around the nation in college football.
The Cardinals completed the biggest comeback in terms of win probability so far in the young 2017 season. They had just a 3.2% chance of winning at their low-point: facing a 3rd and 20 at their own 18, down by 10 points in the 4th quarter.
Your new FPI leader is ... the Chiefs?
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't reached the AFC Championship in 24 years and haven't played in a Super Bowl since the merger. By the early looks of it, the Football Power Index's Week 2 leader has a fighting chance to change that history.
It's probably been awhile since this has been true: the Jacksonville Jaguars are now the AFC South favorites, according to FPI. Titans have second-best chance to win the division at 36%.
The craziest win-probability swings of Week 1
A game-sealing circus catch. A stunning 78-yard TD. An upset-averting sack. These are the plays that swung the NFL's opening weekend.
Projecting the 2017 NFL season, 1-32
Over/under picks. Bold predictions. NFL execs unfiltered. QB depth chart rankings. Go-to plays. It's all here for every NFL team.
Who's the best candidate to take down Patriots?
The 2017 New England Patriots are among the biggest Super Bowl favorites the usually parity-driven NFL has ever seen. Here are five teams with a realistic chance of flipping the script on the Pats' expected repeat.
Tale of the tape: 2007 Patriots vs. 2017 Patriots
Who would win in a theoretical matchup pitting the 16-0 Patriots from 2007 against the defending Super Bowl champion 2017 Patriots? Here are the position-by-position breakdowns, projected point spread and more.